A wet thaw.
29th January 2023
Another temperature cycle today, with the double whammy of a lot of rain to the summits. So, some further snow loss at lower elevations. In fact, wetter than an otters pocket is the phrase that springs to mind for today.
The remaining snowpack will re-freeze tonight as the temperatures drop. There will also be some snow showers on very strong westerly winds but the amounts are not expected to be significant. See the main avalanche report for details.
Colder conditions forecast for mid week.
Ben Nevis is up there somewhere.
You know its not a summit day when the CIC crag waterfalls are flowing upwards!
Looking up to the base of the minus face, past the bottom of the Douglas Boulder.
The inevitable water cycle. Hopefully it will return to us as snow at a later date.
Visibility on Aonach Mor was perhaps slightly better than on the Ben, but otherwise conditions were pretty similar.
Being almost the end of January, and a good month and a half since avalanche forecasting started for the season in Lochaber, I thought it might be a good time to have a look at some weather data for the season so far. I think a general description would be pretty average really.
A graph of the summit temperatures so for this winter. A couple of milder spells, and couple of colder spells, but generally pretty average really (the average, max and min values are the based on data from 2008-2022).
Nothing particularly significant about the temperature anomaly (again the base period is 2008-2022 for not more a scientific reason than this is the dataset I have access to).
Making some assumptions about midday summit temperatures tomorrow and Tuesday gives a January average for 2023 of -1.5 degrees C. Of the past 16 years this is the 12th coldest, or 4th warmest depending on what way you want to look at it. The warmest January was 2020 at -0.2 degrees C, the coldest 2010 at -4.2 degrees C.
The cumulative no settled index for January of the past few years (making a couple of assumptions about how much snow is going to fall the next couple of days). The values in themselves probably don’t mean much (they don’t correspond to cm’s or anything like that), but are probably a reasonable way to compare how much snow fell in January of each year. This year is about average (this year it will be about 90, the average of the previous 15 years is 91). 2014 was the snowiest with 208, 2022 the least snowy with 36.
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